Published model
1. FC Heidenheim
40%
Draw
38%
Energie Cottbus
22%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 13:00
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Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
90/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
95%
Effective history
96%
Core completeness
93%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
10/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
1. FC Heidenheim
Last 5
Energie Cottbus
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
8
9
Goals conceded
7
-3
Goal difference
+1
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Energie Cottbus win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
1. FC Heidenheim
38%
Draw
40%
Energie Cottbus
22%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
1. FC Heidenheim
42%
Draw
37%
Energie Cottbus
21%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
1. FC Heidenheim
40%
Draw
38%
Energie Cottbus
22%
1. FC Heidenheim
+2 pp
Draw
-2 pp
Energie Cottbus
0 pp
Context evidence
54 → 57
44 → 45
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
70%
Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim
Momentum score
65
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Energie Cottbus
Momentum score
26
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
4/5
Published model
1. FC Heidenheim
40%
Draw
38%
Energie Cottbus
22%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 641. FC Heidenheim
42%
Draw
34%
Energie Cottbus
24%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
1. FC Heidenheim
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
50.2
Recent 5 strength
42.4
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Energie Cottbus
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
45.3
Recent 5 strength
52.0
Rest days
7.8
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
4
1. FC Heidenheim +20.3 performance-index edge
VfL Wolfsburg
Arminia Bielefeld
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
56.2 / 20.7 / 23.0
4 bookmakers · Market disagreement 19.2 pp
Market quality Medium · 0.8 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 25%
William Hill · BetVictor · Pinnacle · 1xBet
Win rate
20%
1.20
Average goals
1.60
1.80
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
1. FC Heidenheim
Season
Energie Cottbus
#5
Position
#9
14
Points
9
8
Played
8
4W 2D 2L
Record
2W 3D 3L
0
Goal difference
-1
65
League strength signal
46

@ VfL Wolfsburg
3–1
Away

vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
0–0
Home

vs Würzburger Kickers
3–1
Home

@ VfB Stuttgart
3–0
Away

@ Arminia Bielefeld
2–2
Away

vs Holstein Kiel
1–0
Home

@ SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0–1
Away

vs Dynamo Dresden
5–3
Home

@ SSV Jeddeloh
5–2
Away

vs Bayern München
2–4
Home

@ Hertha BSC
4–1
Away

vs VfL Osnabrück
4–3
Home

vs FC Ingolstadt 04
4–1
Home

vs Hamburger SV
1–3
Home

@ Bologna
1–1
Away

@ Nordlingen
0–9
Away

vs FC Lugano
0–1
Home

@ SCR Altach
1–2
Away

vs FSV Mainz 05
0–2
Home

@ 1. FC Köln
1–3
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
1. FC Heidenheim
1.42
xG
Energie Cottbus
1.8
xG
Most likely scores
1.42
1. FC Heidenheim avg
1.79
Energie Cottbus avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
4%
0
13.1%
1
20.6%
2
22%
3
18.4%
4
11.4%
5
10.5%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs FC St. Pauli
1–1
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