Published model
VfL Bochum
10%
Draw
22%
VfL Wolfsburg
68%
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Fri, 23 Oct 2026 · 18:30
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Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
92/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
97%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
10/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
VfL Bochum
Last 5
VfL Wolfsburg
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
16
7
Goals conceded
8
-1
Goal difference
+8
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
VfL Wolfsburg win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
VfL Bochum
10%
Draw
22%
VfL Wolfsburg
68%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
VfL Bochum
11%
Draw
22%
VfL Wolfsburg
67%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
VfL Bochum
10%
Draw
22%
VfL Wolfsburg
68%
VfL Bochum
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
VfL Wolfsburg
0 pp
Context evidence
32 → 35
67 → 67
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
90%
Momentum
VfL Bochum
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
VfL Wolfsburg
Momentum score
65
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
3/5
Published model
VfL Bochum
10%
Draw
22%
VfL Wolfsburg
68%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85VfL Bochum
17%
Draw
21%
VfL Wolfsburg
62%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
VfL Bochum
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
52.1
Recent 5 strength
37.8
Rest days
6.2
14-day fixtures
2
VfL Wolfsburg
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
63.7
Recent 5 strength
68.2
Rest days
6.2
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
3
VfL Bochum -38.4 performance-index edge
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Hannover 96
Karlsruher SC
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
30.8 / 25.4 / 43.8
4 bookmakers · Market disagreement 24.2 pp
Market quality Medium · 0.7 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 25%
William Hill · BetVictor · Pinnacle · 1xBet
Win rate
60%
1.20
Average goals
3.20
1.40
Average conceded
1.60
Competition
Current season
VfL Bochum
Season
VfL Wolfsburg
#16
Position
#3
7
Points
15
8
Played
8
2W 1D 5L
Record
4W 3D 1L
-4
Goal difference
+9
23
League strength signal
76

@ 1. FC Kaiserslautern
2–0
Away

vs Arminia Bielefeld
0–1
Home

vs VfL Osnabrück
4–1
Home

@ Hannover 96
2–1
Away

vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1–1
Home

@ Dynamo Dresden
1–2
Away

vs VfL Osnabrück
0–1
Home

@ SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1–2
Away

@ Eintracht Braunschweig
0–1
Away

vs Hertha BSC
0–1
Home

vs Sheffield Utd
0–0
Home

@ Werder Bremen
2–0
Away

@ Swansea
0–2
Away

@ Ajax
1–1
Away

vs Antwerp
1–0
Home

@ Rot-weiss Oberhausen
2–3
Away

@ Karlsruher SC
1–2
Away

vs Hannover 96
1–1
Home

@ Arminia Bielefeld
1–1
Away

vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2–1
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
VfL Bochum
1.22
xG
VfL Wolfsburg
2.71
xG
Most likely scores
1.22
VfL Bochum avg
2.72
VfL Wolfsburg avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
1.7%
0
7.6%
1
15.2%
2
20.2%
3
19.5%
4
15.2%
5
20.6%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs SV Darmstadt 98
5–1
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