Published model
Athletic Club W
48%
Draw
34%
Sevilla W
18%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 12:00
12:00
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
83/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
100%
Effective history
100%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Athletic Club W
Last 5
Sevilla W
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
6
7
Goals conceded
10
+1
Goal difference
-4
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Sevilla W win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Athletic Club W
48%
Draw
36%
Sevilla W
16%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Athletic Club W
48%
Draw
33%
Sevilla W
19%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Athletic Club W
48%
Draw
34%
Sevilla W
18%
Athletic Club W
0 pp
Draw
-2 pp
Sevilla W
+2 pp
Context evidence
57 → 60
37 → 43
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Athletic Club W
Momentum score
38
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Sevilla W
Momentum score
74
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Athletic Club W
48%
Draw
34%
Sevilla W
18%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 69Athletic Club W
47%
Draw
35%
Sevilla W
18%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Athletic Club W
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
56.9
Recent 5 strength
57.6
Rest days
20.8
14-day fixtures
0
Sevilla W
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
41.1
Recent 5 strength
35.8
Rest days
21.0
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
11
Athletic Club W +16.6 performance-index edge
Madrid CFF W
FC Levante Badalona W
Eibar W
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
20%
1.60
Average goals
1.20
1.40
Average conceded
2.00
Competition
Current season
Athletic Club W
Season
Sevilla W
#5
Position
#10
11
Points
7
6
Played
6
3W 2D 1L
Record
2W 1D 3L
+3
Goal difference
-3
64
League strength signal
41

@ Madrid CFF W
2–2
Away

vs Atletico Madrid W
3–2
Home

@ Eibar W
1–0
Away

vs Espanyol W
2–2
Home

@ Edf Logrono W
0–1
Away

vs FC Levante Badalona W
3–1
Home

vs Alhama W
4–1
Home

@ Edf Logrono W
0–2
Away

vs Deportivo de La Coruña W
0–1
Home

@ FC Levante Badalona W
0–1
Away

vs Granada
1–2
Home

@ Levante W
0–1
Away

vs Atletico Madrid W
1–2
Home

@ Barcelona W
7–1
Away

vs Madrid CFF W
4–1
Home

@ Eibar W
0–1
Away

vs Real Sociedad W
0–2
Home

@ Sevilla W
4–0
Away

vs Espanyol W
2–1
Home

@ Barcelona W
3–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Athletic Club W
1.83
xG
Sevilla W
1.22
xG
Most likely scores
1.84
Athletic Club W avg
1.24
Sevilla W avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
4.8%
0
14.1%
1
21.8%
2
22.3%
3
16.8%
4
11%
5
9.2%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions