Published model
Celta de Vigo II
24%
Draw
40%
Tenerife
36%
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Mon, 19 Oct 2026 · 20:30
20:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
100/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
100%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Celta de Vigo II
Last 5
Tenerife
5
Matches played
5
7
Goals scored
6
11
Goals conceded
10
-4
Goal difference
-4
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Tenerife win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Celta de Vigo II
21%
Draw
40%
Tenerife
39%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Celta de Vigo II
27%
Draw
40%
Tenerife
33%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Celta de Vigo II
24%
Draw
40%
Tenerife
36%
Celta de Vigo II
+3 pp
Draw
0 pp
Tenerife
-3 pp
Context evidence
41 → 45
42 → 40
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Celta de Vigo II
Momentum score
74
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Tenerife
Momentum score
35
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Celta de Vigo II
24%
Draw
40%
Tenerife
36%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Celta de Vigo II
30%
Draw
36%
Tenerife
34%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Celta de Vigo II
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
52.4
Recent 5 strength
35.8
Rest days
9.0
14-day fixtures
1
Tenerife
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
53.8
Recent 5 strength
42.4
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
10
Celta de Vigo II -11.2 performance-index edge
Real Sociedad II
Sporting Gijon
Almeria
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
36.2 / 29.1 / 34.7
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 10.9 pp
Market quality High · 0.6 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
20%
1.40
Average goals
1.20
2.20
Average conceded
2.00
Competition
Current season
Celta de Vigo II
Season
Tenerife
#15
Position
#13
11
Points
12
9
Played
9
3W 2D 4L
Record
3W 3D 3L
-1
Goal difference
-2
38
League strength signal
44

vs Real Sociedad II
4–1
Home

@ Sporting Gijon
3–2
Away

vs Sabadell
1–1
Home

@ Almeria
2–0
Away

vs Eibar
0–4
Home

@ AD Ceuta FC
0–2
Away

vs Castellón
1–2
Home

vs FC Andorra
4–2
Home

@ Cadiz
0–0
Away

@ Vizela
0–1
Away

@ Lugo
1–1
Away

vs Ponferradina
4–1
Home

@ Ponferradina
0–0
Away

vs Europa Fc
3–2
Home

@ Europa Fc
1–1
Away

@ Barakaldo
1–1
Away

vs Lugo
0–1
Home

@ Ourense CF
2–4
Away

vs Osasuna II
0–1
Home

@ Pontevedra
1–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Celta de Vigo II
1.73
xG
Tenerife
1.59
xG
Most likely scores
1.74
Celta de Vigo II avg
1.58
Tenerife avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
3.9%
0
12%
1
19.4%
2
21.8%
3
18.7%
4
12.1%
5
12.1%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Castellón
5–0
Away