Published model
Lille
43%
Draw
28%
Lens
29%
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Fri, 30 Oct 2026 · 21:05
21:05
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
93/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
97%
Core completeness
94%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
10/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Lille
Last 5
Lens
5
Matches played
5
5
Goals scored
8
7
Goals conceded
6
-2
Goal difference
+2
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Lens win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Lille
46%
Draw
27%
Lens
27%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Lille
40%
Draw
29%
Lens
31%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Lille
43%
Draw
28%
Lens
29%
Lille
-3 pp
Draw
+1 pp
Lens
+2 pp
Context evidence
65 → 63
55 → 58
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
60%
Momentum
Lille
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Lens
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Lille
43%
Draw
28%
Lens
29%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Lille
36%
Draw
30%
Lens
34%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Lille
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
57.1
Recent 5 strength
48.0
Rest days
13.1
14-day fixtures
1
Lens
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
58.7
Recent 5 strength
58.6
Rest days
13.1
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
5
Lille -12.0 performance-index edge
Estac Troyes
Paris Saint Germain
Auxerre
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
40.3 / 26.9 / 32.8
4 bookmakers · Market disagreement 5.3 pp
Market quality Medium · 0.2 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 25%
William Hill · Marathonbet · Pinnacle · 1xBet
Win rate
60%
1.00
Average goals
1.60
1.40
Average conceded
1.20
Competition
Current season
Lille
Season
Lens
#4
Position
#8
14
Points
10
7
Played
7
4W 2D 1L
Record
3W 1D 3L
+5
Goal difference
+3
74
League strength signal
57

vs Stade Brestois 29
1–1
Home

@ Arsenal
3–0
Away

vs Le Havre
1–0
Home

vs Zulte Waregem
2–1
Home

@ Nice
2–1
Away

vs Estac Troyes
2–0
Home

vs Real Betis
2–3
Home

@ Toulouse
0–1
Away

vs Paris Saint Germain
2–2
Home

@ Angers
0–2
Away

@ Everton
1–1
Away

@ Hamburger SV
2–2
Away

@ OH Leuven
3–6
Away

@ Union St. Gilloise
2–1
Away

vs RAAL La Louvière
3–0
Home

vs Auxerre
0–2
Home

@ Monaco
0–1
Away

vs Le Havre
1–1
Home

@ Paris FC
0–1
Away

vs Nice
0–0
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Lille
1.06
xG
Lens
1.5
xG
Most likely scores
1.06
Lille avg
1.49
Lens avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
8.1%
0
19.6%
1
25.6%
2
21.5%
3
13.7%
4
7%
5
4.6%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Standard Liege
0–2
Away