Published model
Paris Saint Germain
46%
Draw
19%
Lyon
35%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 20:45
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Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
97/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
97%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Paris Saint Germain
Last 5
Lyon
5
Matches played
5
13
Goals scored
12
5
Goals conceded
6
+8
Goal difference
+6
100%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Lyon win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Paris Saint Germain
44%
Draw
20%
Lyon
36%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Paris Saint Germain
49%
Draw
18%
Lyon
33%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Paris Saint Germain
46%
Draw
19%
Lyon
35%
Paris Saint Germain
+2 pp
Draw
-1 pp
Lyon
-1 pp
Context evidence
72 → 74
69 → 67
Venue samples
3 / 4
Opponent coverage
70%
Momentum
Paris Saint Germain
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Lyon
Momentum score
32
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
3/5
Published model
Paris Saint Germain
46%
Draw
19%
Lyon
35%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 75Paris Saint Germain
51%
Draw
21%
Lyon
28%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Paris Saint Germain
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
63.5
Recent 5 strength
88.0
Rest days
8.2
14-day fixtures
2
Lyon
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
61.8
Recent 5 strength
71.8
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
3
Paris Saint Germain -6.4 performance-index edge
Lens
Rennes
Paris FC
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
68.8 / 18.1 / 13.1
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 26.8 pp
Market quality High · 0.4 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34% · large model-market disagreement — review
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
80%
2.60
Average goals
2.40
1.00
Average conceded
1.20
Competition
Current season
Paris Saint Germain
Season
Lyon
#2
Position
#1
14
Points
14
7
Played
7
4W 2D 1L
Record
4W 2D 1L
+5
Goal difference
+8
80
League strength signal
81

@ Strasbourg
1–3
Away

@ Manchester City
2–4
Away

vs Le Mans
3–1
Home

@ Marseille
1–2
Away

@ Stade Brestois 29
0–1
Away

vs Slovan Bratislava
6–1
Home

vs Monaco
1–2
Home

@ Lille
2–2
Away

@ Rennes
2–2
Away

@ Lens
1–0
Away

vs Aston Villa
2–1
Home

vs Manchester United
1–1
Home

@ Mallorca
3–0
Away

vs Arsenal
1–1
Home

@ Paris FC
2–1
Away

@ Lens
0–2
Away

vs Stade Brestois 29
1–0
Home

@ Bayern München
1–1
Away

vs Lorient
2–2
Home

vs Bayern München
5–4
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Paris Saint Germain
2.05
xG
Lyon
1.76
xG
Most likely scores
2.04
Paris Saint Germain avg
1.76
Lyon avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
2.4%
0
8%
1
16.8%
2
19.9%
3
19.4%
4
15%
5
18.5%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Rennes
4–0
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