Published model
Rennes
52%
Draw
32%
Strasbourg
16%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 17:15
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Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
98/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
100%
Core completeness
96%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Rennes
Last 5
Strasbourg
5
Matches played
5
9
Goals scored
10
11
Goals conceded
10
-2
Goal difference
0
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Strasbourg win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Rennes
48%
Draw
35%
Strasbourg
17%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Rennes
56%
Draw
29%
Strasbourg
15%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Rennes
52%
Draw
32%
Strasbourg
16%
Rennes
+4 pp
Draw
-3 pp
Strasbourg
-1 pp
Context evidence
58 → 62
39 → 38
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
80%
Momentum
Rennes
Momentum score
86
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Strasbourg
Momentum score
14
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
4/5
Published model
Rennes
52%
Draw
32%
Strasbourg
16%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 75Rennes
53%
Draw
29%
Strasbourg
18%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Rennes
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
49.5
Recent 5 strength
44.4
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
2
Strasbourg
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
37.5
Recent 5 strength
38.8
Rest days
8.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
4
Rennes +33.4 performance-index edge
Paris FC
Marseille
Paris Saint Germain
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
54.6 / 22.3 / 23.1
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 10.7 pp
Market quality High · 0.6 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
20%
1.80
Average goals
2.00
2.20
Average conceded
2.00
Competition
Current season
Rennes
Season
Strasbourg
#6
Position
#14
13
Points
7
7
Played
7
4W 1D 2L
Record
2W 1D 4L
+1
Goal difference
-3
64
League strength signal
33

@ Paris FC
4–3
Away

vs OFI
2–1
Home

vs Auxerre
4–1
Home

@ Laval
1–0
Away

@ Lyon
4–0
Away

@ Sturm Graz
0–0
Away

vs Marseille
1–0
Home

@ Angers
1–2
Away

vs Le Mans
3–2
Home

vs Paris Saint Germain
2–2
Home

@ Sunderland
2–1
Away

vs Brentford
2–4
Home

vs Brentford U21
1–2
Home

@ Galatasaray
3–3
Away

vs Club Brugge KV
2–1
Home

vs Guingamp
3–1
Home

vs Caen
1–2
Home

@ Marseille
3–1
Away

vs Paris FC
2–1
Home

@ Lyon
4–2
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Rennes
2.27
xG
Strasbourg
2.25
xG
Most likely scores
2.25
Rennes avg
2.26
Strasbourg avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
1.1%
0
5%
1
11.3%
2
17.1%
3
18.4%
4
16.9%
5
30.3%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Monaco
1–1
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