Published model
Marseille
48%
Draw
39%
Le Havre
13%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 17:15
17:15
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
96/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
95%
Effective history
97%
Core completeness
95%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Marseille
Last 5
Le Havre
5
Matches played
5
9
Goals scored
9
9
Goals conceded
8
0
Goal difference
+1
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Le Havre win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Marseille
52%
Draw
38%
Le Havre
10%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Marseille
44%
Draw
40%
Le Havre
16%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Marseille
48%
Draw
39%
Le Havre
13%
Marseille
-4 pp
Draw
+1 pp
Le Havre
+3 pp
Context evidence
53 → 51
24 → 28
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
70%
Momentum
Marseille
Momentum score
86
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Le Havre
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
4/5
Published model
Marseille
48%
Draw
39%
Le Havre
13%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 68Marseille
47%
Draw
34%
Le Havre
19%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Marseille
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
45.0
Recent 5 strength
45.4
Rest days
7.1
14-day fixtures
3
Le Havre
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
41.2
Recent 5 strength
37.8
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
4
Marseille +12.6 performance-index edge
Angers
Monaco
Lorient
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
61.2 / 21.3 / 17.5
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 21.2 pp
Market quality High · 1.0 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
20%
1.80
Average goals
1.80
1.80
Average conceded
1.60
Competition
Current season
Marseille
Season
Le Havre
#9
Position
#18
9
Points
2
7
Played
7
3W 0D 4L
Record
0W 2D 5L
+4
Goal difference
-6
52
League strength signal
11

@ Angers
2–5
Away

vs Olympiakos Piraeus
0–1
Home

@ Estac Troyes
0–2
Away

vs Paris Saint Germain
1–2
Home

@ Beşiktaş
4–1
Away

@ Rennes
1–0
Away

vs Paris FC
2–3
Home

@ Monaco
2–0
Away

vs Strasbourg
4–0
Home

vs Atletico Madrid
1–2
Home

vs Athletic Club
3–1
Home

vs Nimes
2–1
Home

vs Nice
0–3
Home

vs Rennes
3–1
Home

@ Le Havre
0–1
Away

@ Nantes
3–0
Away

vs Nice
1–1
Home

@ Lorient
2–0
Away

vs Metz
3–1
Home

@ Monaco
2–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Marseille
1.81
xG
Le Havre
1.54
xG
Most likely scores
1.83
Marseille avg
1.54
Le Havre avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
3.7%
0
11.4%
1
19.2%
2
22.4%
3
18.4%
4
12.4%
5
12.5%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Toulouse
3–2
Away