Published model
Lens
28%
Draw
30%
Paris FC
42%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 20:45
20:45
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
97/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
95%
Effective history
97%
Core completeness
96%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Lens
Last 5
Paris FC
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
9
6
Goals conceded
7
+2
Goal difference
+2
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Paris FC win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Lens
27%
Draw
27%
Paris FC
46%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Lens
30%
Draw
32%
Paris FC
38%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Lens
28%
Draw
30%
Paris FC
42%
Lens
+1 pp
Draw
+3 pp
Paris FC
-4 pp
Context evidence
55 → 56
65 → 60
Venue samples
4 / 5
Opponent coverage
80%
Momentum
Lens
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Paris FC
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Lens
28%
Draw
30%
Paris FC
42%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Lens
35%
Draw
29%
Paris FC
36%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Lens
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
58.7
Recent 5 strength
58.6
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
2
Paris FC
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
58.3
Recent 5 strength
63.2
Rest days
6.1
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
7
Lens -8.4 performance-index edge
Lyon
Estac Troyes
Lorient
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
40.8 / 26.1 / 33.1
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 8.8 pp
Market quality High · 0.3 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
60%
1.60
Average goals
1.80
1.20
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Lens
Season
Paris FC
#8
Position
#3
10
Points
14
7
Played
7
3W 1D 3L
Record
4W 2D 1L
+3
Goal difference
+5
57
League strength signal
72

@ Estac Troyes
1–3
Away

vs Sporting CP
0–2
Home

vs Lyon
2–1
Home

@ Standard Liege
0–2
Away

@ Monaco
2–1
Away

@ Le Mans
2–2
Away

@ Slavia Praha
2–3
Away

vs Lorient
0–1
Home

@ Strasbourg
2–1
Away

vs Auxerre
5–2
Home

vs Paris Saint Germain
1–0
Home

vs Sunderland
0–2
Home

vs Villarreal
3–1
Home

vs Famalicao
0–0
Home

@ Crystal Palace
0–3
Away

vs Charleroi
2–2
Home

vs Boulogne
4–1
Home

vs Nice
3–1
Home

@ Lyon
0–4
Away

vs Paris Saint Germain
0–2
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Lens
1.52
xG
Paris FC
1.59
xG
Most likely scores
1.52
Lens avg
1.59
Paris FC avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
4.5%
0
14.1%
1
21.1%
2
22.8%
3
17.4%
4
10.8%
5
9.3%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Lyon
0–0
Home