Published model
Stade Brestois 29
36%
Draw
40%
Nice
24%
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Fri, 23 Oct 2026 · 20:45
20:45
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
99/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
97%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Stade Brestois 29
Last 5
Nice
5
Matches played
5
9
Goals scored
6
7
Goals conceded
6
+2
Goal difference
0
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Nice win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Stade Brestois 29
33%
Draw
40%
Nice
27%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Stade Brestois 29
40%
Draw
40%
Nice
20%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Stade Brestois 29
36%
Draw
40%
Nice
24%
Stade Brestois 29
+3 pp
Draw
0 pp
Nice
-3 pp
Context evidence
50 → 53
42 → 38
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
90%
Momentum
Stade Brestois 29
Momentum score
80
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Nice
Momentum score
77
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Stade Brestois 29
36%
Draw
40%
Nice
24%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Stade Brestois 29
34%
Draw
36%
Nice
30%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Stade Brestois 29
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
45.0
Recent 5 strength
45.4
Rest days
6.0
14-day fixtures
2
Nice
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
50.4
Recent 5 strength
50.0
Rest days
5.0
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
6
Stade Brestois 29 -11.0 performance-index edge
Lille
Auxerre
Le Mans
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
42.8 / 28.0 / 29.1
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 12.8 pp
Market quality High · 0.8 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
40%
1.80
Average goals
1.20
1.40
Average conceded
1.20
Competition
Current season
Stade Brestois 29
Season
Nice
#10
Position
#13
9
Points
8
7
Played
7
2W 3D 2L
Record
2W 2D 3L
+3
Goal difference
-3
46
League strength signal
34

@ Lille
1–1
Away

vs Angers
5–1
Home

vs Monza
2–2
Home

@ Auxerre
2–1
Away

vs Paris Saint Germain
0–1
Home

@ Le Havre
1–2
Away

vs Toulouse
2–2
Home

@ Le Mans
2–2
Away

@ Nottingham Forest
2–0
Away

vs Venezia
2–2
Home

@ Stade Briochin
1–2
Away

vs Guingamp
3–3
Home

vs Al Wakrah
0–2
Home

vs Concarneau
2–2
Home

vs Angers
1–1
Home

vs Strasbourg
1–2
Home

@ Paris Saint Germain
1–0
Away

@ Paris FC
4–0
Away

vs Lens
3–3
Home

@ Nantes
1–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Stade Brestois 29
1.58
xG
Nice
1.13
xG
Most likely scores
1.59
Stade Brestois 29 avg
1.11
Nice avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.6%
0
18.3%
1
24.6%
2
21.7%
3
14.8%
4
8.2%
5
5.7%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Auxerre
1–0
Away