Published model
Auxerre
34%
Draw
40%
Le Mans
26%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 17:15
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Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
95/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
90%
Effective history
94%
Core completeness
96%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Auxerre
Last 5
Le Mans
5
Matches played
5
11
Goals scored
6
9
Goals conceded
11
+2
Goal difference
-5
80%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Le Mans win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Auxerre
32%
Draw
40%
Le Mans
28%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Auxerre
37%
Draw
40%
Le Mans
23%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Auxerre
34%
Draw
40%
Le Mans
26%
Auxerre
+2 pp
Draw
0 pp
Le Mans
-2 pp
Context evidence
45 → 48
32 → 31
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
80%
Momentum
Auxerre
Momentum score
32
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Le Mans
Momentum score
14
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Auxerre
34%
Draw
40%
Le Mans
26%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Auxerre
39%
Draw
35%
Le Mans
26%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Auxerre
18/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
56.2
Recent 5 strength
68.8
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Le Mans
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
45.7
Recent 5 strength
33.8
Rest days
8.9
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
7
Auxerre +8.2 performance-index edge
Le Havre
Rennes
Stade Brestois 29
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
44.4 / 26.6 / 29.0
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 13.4 pp
Market quality High · 0.5 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
20%
2.20
Average goals
1.20
1.80
Average conceded
2.20
Competition
Current season
Auxerre
Season
Le Mans
#12
Position
#16
9
Points
6
7
Played
7
3W 0D 4L
Record
1W 3D 3L
-6
Goal difference
-5
37
League strength signal
22

@ Le Havre
1–3
Away

@ Rennes
4–1
Away

vs Clermont Foot
4–3
Home

vs Stade Brestois 29
2–1
Home

vs Nice
1–0
Home

@ Lyon
3–1
Away

vs Angers
1–3
Home

@ Lens
5–2
Away

@ Werder Bremen
0–1
Away

vs Estac Troyes
1–1
Home

@ Sochaux
1–1
Away

vs Orleans
1–2
Home

vs St Maur Lusitanos
5–2
Home

@ Lille
0–2
Away

vs Nice
2–1
Home

vs Angers
3–1
Home

@ Lyon
3–2
Away

@ Monaco
2–2
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Auxerre
2.37
xG
Le Mans
1.51
xG
Most likely scores
2.36
Auxerre avg
1.52
Le Mans avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
2.1%
0
8.1%
1
15.9%
2
19.9%
3
19.2%
4
14.9%
5
19.9%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Lorient
2–1
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