Published model
Angers
12%
Draw
37%
Lorient
51%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 17:15
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Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
100/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
100%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Angers
Last 5
Lorient
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
6
12
Goals conceded
4
-6
Goal difference
+2
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Lorient win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Angers
12%
Draw
34%
Lorient
54%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Angers
13%
Draw
40%
Lorient
47%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Angers
12%
Draw
37%
Lorient
51%
Angers
0 pp
Draw
+3 pp
Lorient
-3 pp
Context evidence
30 → 31
57 → 53
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Angers
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Lorient
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Angers
12%
Draw
37%
Lorient
51%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 66Angers
22%
Draw
35%
Lorient
43%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Angers
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
43.8
Recent 5 strength
33.8
Rest days
7.1
14-day fixtures
1
Lorient
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
55.2
Recent 5 strength
63.2
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
9
Angers +5.9 performance-index edge
Estac Troyes
Paris FC
Le Mans
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
34.8 / 28.7 / 36.5
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 18.8 pp
Market quality High · 0.5 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
60%
1.20
Average goals
1.20
2.40
Average conceded
0.80
Competition
Current season
Angers
Season
Lorient
#15
Position
#7
7
Points
11
7
Played
7
2W 1D 4L
Record
3W 2D 2L
-6
Goal difference
+1
27
League strength signal
57

vs Marseille
2–5
Home

@ Stade Brestois 29
5–1
Away

vs Estac Troyes
2–0
Home

@ Le Havre
0–0
Away

vs Rennes
1–2
Home

@ Auxerre
1–3
Away

vs Lille
0–2
Home

vs Paris FC
3–2
Home

vs Lorient
2–1
Home

vs Le Mans
2–3
Home

vs Creteil
2–1
Home

vs Les Herbiers
3–1
Home

@ Stade Brestois 29
1–1
Away

vs Strasbourg
1–1
Home

@ Auxerre
3–1
Away

vs Paris Saint Germain
0–3
Home

vs Le Havre
1–1
Home

@ Rennes
2–1
Away

vs Lyon
0–0
Home

@ Lens
5–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Angers
0.94
xG
Lorient
1.74
xG
Most likely scores
0.95
Angers avg
1.74
Lorient avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
7.1%
0
17.8%
1
24.3%
2
22.1%
3
15.2%
4
8.1%
5
5.3%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Toulouse
2–2
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