Published model
Udinese
10%
Draw
23%
AC Milan
67%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 20:45
20:45
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
99/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
95%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Udinese
Last 5
AC Milan
5
Matches played
5
5
Goals scored
11
12
Goals conceded
5
-7
Goal difference
+6
0%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
AC Milan win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Udinese
10%
Draw
25%
AC Milan
65%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Udinese
10%
Draw
22%
AC Milan
68%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Udinese
10%
Draw
23%
AC Milan
67%
Udinese
0 pp
Draw
-2 pp
AC Milan
+2 pp
Context evidence
24 → 26
65 → 68
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
70%
Momentum
Udinese
Momentum score
56
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
AC Milan
Momentum score
65
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Udinese
10%
Draw
23%
AC Milan
67%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Udinese
14%
Draw
24%
AC Milan
62%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Udinese
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
40.6
Recent 5 strength
21.6
Rest days
7.4
14-day fixtures
2
AC Milan
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
58.6
Recent 5 strength
66.2
Rest days
7.2
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
6
Udinese -40.2 performance-index edge
Lecce
Torino
Lazio
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
19.1 / 24.6 / 56.4
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 8.6 pp
Market quality High · 0.6 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
60%
1.00
Average goals
2.20
2.40
Average conceded
1.00
Competition
Current season
Udinese
Season
AC Milan
#17
Position
#4
4
Points
15
7
Played
7
1W 1D 5L
Record
4W 3D 0L
-7
Goal difference
+7
23
League strength signal
76

vs Lecce
0–3
Home

@ Torino
2–1
Away

@ Pogon Szczecin
1–1
Away

vs Cagliari
0–1
Home

@ Inter
5–3
Away

vs Lazio
1–2
Home

vs Venezia
2–1
Home

@ Monza
2–3
Away

vs Como
1–1
Home

vs Padova
1–0
Home

vs Barcelona
1–0
Home

vs Nottingham Forest
1–0
Home

@ Trabzonspor
1–0
Away

vs FSV Mainz 05
3–3
Home

vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1–2
Home

@ Swansea
2–0
Away

vs Istra 1961
2–2
Home

@ Napoli
1–0
Away

vs Cremonese
0–1
Home

@ Cagliari
0–2
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Udinese
0.87
xG
AC Milan
2.61
xG
Most likely scores
0.88
Udinese avg
2.6
AC Milan avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
3.1%
0
10.9%
1
18.8%
2
21.5%
3
18.1%
4
13.5%
5
14.1%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Lecce
3–0
Home