Published model
Napoli
19%
Draw
14%
AS Roma
67%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 18:00
18:00
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
100/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
100%
Core completeness
98%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Napoli
Last 5
AS Roma
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
9
5
Goals conceded
6
+1
Goal difference
+3
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
AS Roma win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Napoli
17%
Draw
13%
AS Roma
70%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Napoli
21%
Draw
16%
AS Roma
63%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Napoli
19%
Draw
14%
AS Roma
67%
Napoli
+2 pp
Draw
+1 pp
AS Roma
-3 pp
Context evidence
55 → 57
80 → 77
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
80%
Momentum
Napoli
Momentum score
32
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
AS Roma
Momentum score
38
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Napoli
19%
Draw
14%
AS Roma
67%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 82Napoli
24%
Draw
21%
AS Roma
55%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Napoli
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
52.5
Recent 5 strength
52.0
Rest days
7.1
14-day fixtures
3
AS Roma
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
64.9
Recent 5 strength
58.6
Rest days
6.9
14-day fixtures
3
Common opponents
6
Napoli -28.1 performance-index edge
Fiorentina
Como
Inter
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
32.4 / 27.5 / 40.1
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 21.9 pp
Market quality High · 0.3 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
40%
1.20
Average goals
1.80
1.00
Average conceded
1.20
Competition
Current season
Napoli
Season
AS Roma
#9
Position
#3
10
Points
17
7
Played
7
3W 1D 3L
Record
5W 2D 0L
+3
Goal difference
+13
57
League strength signal
85

@ Venezia
1–0
Away

@ Villarreal
3–1
Away

vs Frosinone
3–0
Home

@ Fiorentina
1–1
Away

vs Bologna
1–0
Home

vs Arsenal
0–1
Home

@ Inter
3–2
Away

vs Como
1–2
Home

@ Genoa
0–2
Away

vs Aris Thessalonikis
6–2
Home

vs Celta Vigo
1–1
Home

vs Osasuna
2–1
Home

vs Carrarese
2–0
Home

vs Arezzo
1–3
Home

vs Udinese
1–0
Home

@ Pisa
0–3
Away

vs Bologna
2–3
Home

@ Como
0–0
Away

vs Cremonese
4–0
Home

vs Lazio
0–2
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Napoli
1.05
xG
AS Roma
1.45
xG
Most likely scores
1.06
Napoli avg
1.45
AS Roma avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
8%
0
20.6%
1
25.9%
2
21.1%
3
13.3%
4
6.9%
5
4.2%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Inter
2–2
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