Published model
Lazio
75%
Draw
15%
Parma
10%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 20:45
20:45
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
96/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
93%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Lazio
Last 5
Parma
5
Matches played
5
13
Goals scored
4
4
Goals conceded
9
+9
Goal difference
-5
80%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Parma win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Lazio
75%
Draw
15%
Parma
10%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Lazio
75%
Draw
15%
Parma
10%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Lazio
75%
Draw
15%
Parma
10%
Lazio
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
Parma
0 pp
Context evidence
77 → 77
32 → 28
Venue samples
5 / 3
Opponent coverage
70%
Momentum
Lazio
Momentum score
38
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Parma
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Lazio
75%
Draw
15%
Parma
10%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Lazio
71%
Draw
18%
Parma
11%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Lazio
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
72.5
Recent 5 strength
81.4
Rest days
6.0
14-day fixtures
2
Parma
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
39.9
Recent 5 strength
34.7
Rest days
14.1
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
9
Lazio +27.7 performance-index edge
Monza
Juventus
Genoa
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
63.7 / 22.3 / 14.0
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 10.3 pp
Market quality High · 0.4 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
20%
2.60
Average goals
0.80
0.80
Average conceded
1.80
Competition
Current season
Lazio
Season
Parma
#2
Position
#16
19
Points
4
7
Played
6
6W 1D 0L
Record
1W 1D 4L
+10
Goal difference
-6
86
League strength signal
27

@ Juventus
0–3
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vs Monza
3–1
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vs Juve Stabia
3–3
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vs Arezzo
2–0
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@ Venezia
0–2
Away

vs AC Milan
2–2
Home

@ Udinese
1–2
Away

vs Genoa
1–0
Home

@ Bologna
0–1
Away

vs Mantova
0–2
Home

@ Frosinone
1–2
Away

vs Ostia Mare
4–0
Home

@ Ascoli
1–2
Away

vs Avellino
6–3
Home

vs Flaminia
6–0
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vs Pisa
2–1
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@ AS Roma
2–0
Away

vs Inter
0–2
Home

vs Inter
0–3
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@ Cremonese
1–2
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Lazio
2.49
xG
Parma
0.62
xG
Most likely scores
2.5
Lazio avg
0.61
Parma avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
4.3%
0
13.9%
1
21.8%
2
22.4%
3
17.2%
4
11.2%
5
9.2%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Monza
1–1
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