Published model
Inter
77%
Draw
13%
Fiorentina
10%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 12:30
12:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
96/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
95%
Effective history
95%
Core completeness
95%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Inter
Last 5
Fiorentina
5
Matches played
5
13
Goals scored
10
7
Goals conceded
8
+6
Goal difference
+2
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Fiorentina win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Inter
78%
Draw
12%
Fiorentina
10%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Inter
77%
Draw
13%
Fiorentina
10%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Inter
77%
Draw
13%
Fiorentina
10%
Inter
-1 pp
Draw
+1 pp
Fiorentina
0 pp
Context evidence
84 → 81
27 → 29
Venue samples
5 / 3
Opponent coverage
70%
Momentum
Inter
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Fiorentina
Momentum score
2
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
4/5
Published model
Inter
77%
Draw
13%
Fiorentina
10%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Inter
74%
Draw
15%
Fiorentina
11%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Inter
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
70.8
Recent 5 strength
67.2
Rest days
7.8
14-day fixtures
2
Fiorentina
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
48.4
Recent 5 strength
50.5
Rest days
6.9
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
4
Inter +17.0 performance-index edge
AS Roma
Napoli
Real Madrid
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
69.3 / 17.7 / 13.0
5 bookmakers · Market disagreement 6.7 pp
Market quality High · 0.6 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · BetVictor · Pinnacle · 1xBet
Win rate
40%
2.60
Average goals
2.00
1.40
Average conceded
1.60
Competition
Current season
Inter
Season
Fiorentina
#1
Position
#19
19
Points
4
7
Played
7
6W 1D 0L
Record
1W 1D 5L
+12
Goal difference
-9
93
League strength signal
16

@ Bologna
1–3
Away

vs Club Brugge KV
3–4
Home

vs Parma
3–0
Home

vs Lumezzane
2–0
Home

@ AS Roma
2–2
Away

vs Udinese
5–3
Home

@ Real Madrid
2–1
Away

vs Napoli
3–2
Home

@ Cagliari
0–1
Away

vs Monza
4–1
Home

vs Real Betis
1–0
Home

@ Juventus
1–2
Away

@ AC Milan
1–1
Away

@ Manchester City
1–1
Away

@ Karlsruher SC
1–2
Away

@ Bologna
3–3
Away

vs Hellas Verona
1–1
Home

@ Lazio
0–2
Away

@ Lazio
0–3
Away

vs Parma
2–0
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Inter
2.88
xG
Fiorentina
1.69
xG
Most likely scores
2.89
Inter avg
1.7
Fiorentina avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
1%
0
4.6%
1
10.4%
2
16.8%
3
18.8%
4
17.1%
5
31.4%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Pisa
3–0
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