Published model
Genoa
18%
Draw
40%
Venezia
42%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 15:00
15:00
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
99/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
95%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Genoa
Last 5
Venezia
5
Matches played
5
4
Goals scored
6
7
Goals conceded
12
-3
Goal difference
-6
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Venezia win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Genoa
16%
Draw
40%
Venezia
44%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Genoa
21%
Draw
40%
Venezia
39%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Genoa
18%
Draw
40%
Venezia
42%
Genoa
+2 pp
Draw
0 pp
Venezia
-2 pp
Context evidence
29 → 33
21 → 21
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
80%
Momentum
Genoa
Momentum score
41
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Venezia
Momentum score
68
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Genoa
18%
Draw
40%
Venezia
42%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 56Genoa
28%
Draw
36%
Venezia
36%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Genoa
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
38.6
Recent 5 strength
41.0
Rest days
7.8
14-day fixtures
1
Venezia
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
46.8
Recent 5 strength
27.2
Rest days
8.0
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
7
Genoa +12.1 performance-index edge
Fiorentina
Frosinone
Lazio
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
45.3 / 28.5 / 26.2
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 26.3 pp
Market quality High · 1.2 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34% · large model-market disagreement — review
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
20%
0.80
Average goals
1.20
1.40
Average conceded
2.40
Competition
Current season
Genoa
Season
Venezia
#18
Position
#20
4
Points
3
7
Played
7
1W 1D 5L
Record
1W 0D 6L
-8
Goal difference
-10
18
League strength signal
9

@ AS Roma
2–0
Away

vs Fiorentina
2–1
Home

@ Rapid
2–0
Away

@ Parma
2–1
Away

vs Sudtirol
1–0
Home

vs Frosinone
1–1
Home

vs Como
1–4
Home

@ Lazio
1–0
Away

vs Napoli
0–2
Home

vs Ascoli
4–1
Home

vs Deportivo La Coruna
0–1
Home

@ Bournemouth
10–1
Away

@ Leicester
0–1
Away

vs Vicenza Virtus
2–2
Home

vs Trento
2–1
Home

@ Lecce
1–0
Away

vs AC Milan
1–2
Home

@ Fiorentina
0–0
Away

@ Atalanta
0–0
Away

vs Como
0–2
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Genoa
1.53
xG
Venezia
1.22
xG
Most likely scores
1.53
Genoa avg
1.23
Venezia avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.5%
0
17.7%
1
23.7%
2
22.6%
3
14.6%
4
8.6%
5
6.3%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Fiorentina
2–4
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