Published model
Como
63%
Draw
23%
Sassuolo
14%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00
15:00
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
98/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Como
Last 5
Sassuolo
5
Matches played
5
7
Goals scored
9
7
Goals conceded
11
0
Goal difference
-2
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Sassuolo win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Como
62%
Draw
23%
Sassuolo
15%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Como
65%
Draw
22%
Sassuolo
13%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Como
63%
Draw
23%
Sassuolo
14%
Como
+1 pp
Draw
0 pp
Sassuolo
-1 pp
Context evidence
67 → 67
41 → 38
Venue samples
3 / 5
Opponent coverage
90%
Momentum
Como
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Sassuolo
Momentum score
20
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
3/5
Published model
Como
63%
Draw
23%
Sassuolo
14%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Como
62%
Draw
23%
Sassuolo
15%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Como
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
65.1
Recent 5 strength
51.0
Rest days
6.0
14-day fixtures
3
Sassuolo
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
44.3
Recent 5 strength
43.4
Rest days
7.8
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
3
Como +19.3 performance-index edge
Frosinone
Parma
Fiorentina
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
64.9 / 20.4 / 14.7
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 4.9 pp
Market quality High · 1.2 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
20%
1.40
Average goals
1.80
1.40
Average conceded
2.20
Competition
Current season
Como
Season
Sassuolo
#5
Position
#12
14
Points
8
7
Played
7
4W 2D 1L
Record
2W 2D 3L
+5
Goal difference
-2
72
League strength signal
42

@ Fiorentina
1–3
Away

@ Feyenoord
3–2
Away

vs AS Roma
0–0
Home

@ Frosinone
2–0
Away

vs Parma
2–1
Home

vs RB Leipzig
4–1
Home

@ Genoa
1–4
Away

@ Napoli
1–2
Away

@ Udinese
1–1
Away

@ Liverpool
0–0
Away

@ Arsenal
1–1
Away

@ Famalicao
2–3
Away

@ Villarreal
1–1
Away

vs Al Ula
3–1
Home

vs Paris FC
2–2
Home

@ Cremonese
1–4
Away

vs Parma
1–0
Home

@ Hellas Verona
0–1
Away

vs Napoli
0–0
Home

@ Genoa
0–2
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Como
1.94
xG
Sassuolo
1.54
xG
Most likely scores
1.95
Como avg
1.54
Sassuolo avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
3.4%
0
11%
1
18.1%
2
20.9%
3
19.3%
4
13.3%
5
14.1%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Juventus
3–2
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