Published model
Cagliari
49%
Draw
34%
Bologna
17%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00
15:00
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
99/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
98%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Cagliari
Last 5
Bologna
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
6
4
Goals conceded
8
+2
Goal difference
-2
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Bologna win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Cagliari
51%
Draw
33%
Bologna
16%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Cagliari
47%
Draw
36%
Bologna
17%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Cagliari
49%
Draw
34%
Bologna
17%
Cagliari
-2 pp
Draw
+1 pp
Bologna
+1 pp
Context evidence
59 → 57
38 → 39
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
90%
Momentum
Cagliari
Momentum score
65
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Bologna
Momentum score
65
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Cagliari
49%
Draw
34%
Bologna
17%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 64Cagliari
42%
Draw
34%
Bologna
24%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Cagliari
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
59.4
Recent 5 strength
65.0
Rest days
12.8
14-day fixtures
1
Bologna
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
40.0
Recent 5 strength
42.4
Rest days
6.9
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
6
Cagliari +10.9 performance-index edge
Atalanta
Inter
Lecce
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
29.8 / 31.3 / 38.9
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 22.9 pp
Market quality High · 0.9 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
20%
1.20
Average goals
1.20
0.80
Average conceded
1.60
Competition
Current season
Cagliari
Season
Bologna
#7
Position
#14
13
Points
5
6
Played
7
4W 1D 1L
Record
1W 2D 4L
+3
Goal difference
-4
61
League strength signal
32

vs Juventus
1–1
Home

@ Udinese
0–1
Away

@ Atalanta
1–2
Away

vs Lecce
1–0
Home

vs Hellas Verona
1–2
Home

vs Inter
0–1
Home

@ Parma
0–1
Away

vs Arezzo
1–0
Home

vs Nice
0–0
Home

@ Union Berlin
2–2
Away

vs Modena
1–0
Home

@ Sampdoria
0–0
Away

@ AC Milan
1–2
Away

vs Torino
2–1
Home

vs Udinese
0–2
Home

@ Bologna
0–0
Away

vs Atalanta
3–2
Home

@ Inter
3–0
Away

vs Cremonese
1–0
Home

@ Sassuolo
2–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Cagliari
1.24
xG
Bologna
0.84
xG
Most likely scores
1.23
Cagliari avg
0.82
Bologna avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
12.5%
0
26.9%
1
27%
2
18.6%
3
9.3%
4
3.9%
5
1.8%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Napoli
1–0
Away