Published model
Atalanta
18%
Draw
30%
Frosinone
52%
Help improve Navurex
Optional first-party analytics help measure match usage, sign-up funnels and product performance. No advertising pixels or profiling. See the Cookie Policy.
Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 15:00
15:00
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
99/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
96%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Atalanta
Last 5
Frosinone
5
Matches played
5
9
Goals scored
9
9
Goals conceded
7
0
Goal difference
+2
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Frosinone win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Atalanta
15%
Draw
27%
Frosinone
58%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Atalanta
21%
Draw
34%
Frosinone
45%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Atalanta
18%
Draw
30%
Frosinone
52%
Atalanta
+3 pp
Draw
+3 pp
Frosinone
-6 pp
Context evidence
40 → 46
64 → 59
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
80%
Momentum
Atalanta
Momentum score
86
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Frosinone
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Atalanta
18%
Draw
30%
Frosinone
52%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 60Atalanta
34%
Draw
27%
Frosinone
39%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Atalanta
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
54.3
Recent 5 strength
44.4
Rest days
6.9
14-day fixtures
3
Frosinone
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
64.8
Recent 5 strength
63.2
Rest days
8.8
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
6
Atalanta -1.7 performance-index edge
Venezia
Juventus
Sassuolo
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
55.4 / 22.5 / 22.1
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 31.4 pp
Market quality High · 0.8 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34% · large model-market disagreement — review
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
60%
1.80
Average goals
1.80
1.80
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Atalanta
Season
Frosinone
#10
Position
#6
9
Points
13
7
Played
7
3W 0D 4L
Record
4W 1D 2L
-1
Goal difference
+4
50
League strength signal
67

@ AC Milan
3–2
Away

vs Pafos
3–1
Home

vs Venezia
3–1
Home

@ Juventus
2–0
Away

vs Cagliari
1–2
Home

@ AS Roma
2–1
Away

vs Bologna
1–0
Home

@ Hapoel Tel Aviv
0–1
Away

vs Sassuolo
2–1
Home

vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
0–0
Home

vs Athletic Club
1–0
Home

@ FC Schalke 04
0–3
Away

@ Feyenoord
2–1
Away

vs Arezzo
3–2
Home

@ Fiorentina
1–1
Away

vs Bologna
0–1
Home

@ AC Milan
2–3
Away

vs Genoa
0–0
Home

@ Cagliari
3–2
Away

vs Lazio
1–1
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Atalanta
1.62
xG
Frosinone
1.79
xG
Most likely scores
1.64
Atalanta avg
1.78
Frosinone avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
3.3%
0
11.7%
1
18.7%
2
21.4%
3
19.1%
4
12.4%
5
13.4%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Como
2–0
Home