Published model
Parma
17%
Draw
40%
Torino
43%
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Mon, 19 Oct 2026 · 20:45
20:45
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
99/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
98%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Parma
Last 5
Torino
5
Matches played
5
4
Goals scored
5
9
Goals conceded
6
-5
Goal difference
-1
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Torino win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Parma
16%
Draw
40%
Torino
44%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Parma
18%
Draw
40%
Torino
42%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Parma
17%
Draw
40%
Torino
43%
Parma
+1 pp
Draw
0 pp
Torino
-1 pp
Context evidence
32 → 36
42 → 45
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
90%
Momentum
Parma
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Torino
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Parma
17%
Draw
40%
Torino
43%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Parma
22%
Draw
37%
Torino
41%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Parma
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
39.9
Recent 5 strength
34.7
Rest days
9.1
14-day fixtures
1
Torino
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
50.8
Recent 5 strength
50.3
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
9
Parma +1.4 performance-index edge
Sassuolo
Monza
Juventus
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
28.9 / 31.2 / 39.9
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 11.0 pp
Market quality High · 0.4 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
40%
0.80
Average goals
1.00
1.80
Average conceded
1.20
Competition
Current season
Parma
Season
Torino
#16
Position
#13
4
Points
7
6
Played
6
1W 1D 4L
Record
2W 1D 3L
-6
Goal difference
-2
27
League strength signal
40

@ Inter
3–0
Away

vs Genoa
2–1
Home

@ Como
2–1
Away

vs Monza
1–1
Home

vs Cremonese
0–2
Home

@ Juventus
2–0
Away

vs Cagliari
0–1
Home

vs Catania
2–0
Home

vs Sampdoria
0–2
Home

vs Iraklis 1908
1–1
Home

vs Arezzo
1–1
Home

@ Sassuolo
0–0
Away

@ Trento
1–1
Away

vs Sassuolo
1–0
Home

@ Como
1–0
Away

vs AS Roma
2–3
Home

@ Inter
2–0
Away

vs Pisa
1–0
Home

@ Udinese
0–1
Away

vs Napoli
1–1
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Parma
0.89
xG
Torino
1.28
xG
Most likely scores
0.9
Parma avg
1.27
Torino avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
11.1%
0
24.5%
1
27.1%
2
20%
3
10.7%
4
4.3%
5
2.3%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Fiorentina
1–2
Away