Published model
Slovenia
13%
Draw
12%
Switzerland
75%
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Fri, 13 Nov 2026 · 20:45
20:45
Kickoff
Home
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
80/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
100%
Effective history
90%
Core completeness
97%
Freshness
5/10
Market evidence
2/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Slovenia
Last 5
Switzerland
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
12
5
Goals conceded
4
+1
Goal difference
+8
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Switzerland win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Slovenia
12%
Draw
12%
Switzerland
76%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Slovenia
15%
Draw
12%
Switzerland
73%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Slovenia
13%
Draw
12%
Switzerland
75%
Slovenia
+1 pp
Draw
0 pp
Switzerland
-1 pp
Context evidence
62 → 62
97 → 91
Venue samples
4 / 4
Opponent coverage
90%
Momentum
Slovenia
Momentum score
77
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Switzerland
Momentum score
77
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• Market data is shown as reference only because source quality is limited.
Published model
Slovenia
13%
Draw
12%
Switzerland
75%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 82Slovenia
14%
Draw
12%
Switzerland
74%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Slovenia
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
49.9
Recent 5 strength
52.0
Rest days
38.0
14-day fixtures
0
Switzerland
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
71.2
Recent 5 strength
78.1
Rest days
38.0
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
6
Slovenia -27.0 performance-index edge
Scotland
FYR Macedonia
Kosovo
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
19.4 / 25.5 / 55.1
1 bookmakers · Market disagreement 18.9 pp
Market quality Limited · 0.0 pp dispersion
Market quality gate blocked blending · reference only — not blended into V3
1xBet
Win rate
80%
1.20
Average goals
2.40
1.00
Average conceded
0.80
Competition
Current season
Slovenia
Season
Switzerland
#2
Position
#1
7
Points
12
4
Played
4
2W 1D 1L
Record
4W 0D 0L
+2
Goal difference
+10
77
League strength signal
100

@ Scotland
1–2
Away

@ Switzerland
2–1
Away

vs FYR Macedonia
2–0
Home

vs Scotland
0–0
Home

@ Croatia
2–1
Away

vs Cyprus
1–1
Home

@ Montenegro
2–3
Away

@ Hungary
1–0
Away

@ Sweden
1–1
Away

vs Kosovo
0–2
Home

vs Switzerland
0–0
Home

@ Kosovo
0–0
Away

@ Switzerland
3–0
Away

vs Sweden
2–2
Home

vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
2–1
Home

@ Luxembourg
0–1
Away

vs Slovakia
1–0
Home

@ Slovakia
0–0
Away

@ Austria
1–1
Away

vs Norway
1–4
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Slovenia
0.82
xG
Switzerland
1.89
xG
Most likely scores
0.81
Slovenia avg
1.88
Switzerland avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
7%
0
18.2%
1
24.2%
2
22.4%
3
14.2%
4
8.3%
5
5.7%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions