Published model
Santos
39%
Draw
35%
Bahia
26%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 02:00
02:00
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
100/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
97%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Santos
Last 5
Bahia
5
Matches played
5
9
Goals scored
4
7
Goals conceded
7
+2
Goal difference
-3
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Bahia win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Santos
39%
Draw
35%
Bahia
26%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Santos
40%
Draw
34%
Bahia
26%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Santos
39%
Draw
35%
Bahia
26%
Santos
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
Bahia
0 pp
Context evidence
58 → 59
51 → 51
Venue samples
4 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Santos
Momentum score
20
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Bahia
Momentum score
41
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Santos
39%
Draw
35%
Bahia
26%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 72Santos
42%
Draw
31%
Bahia
27%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Santos
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
63.3
Recent 5 strength
65.2
Rest days
6.2
14-day fixtures
2
Bahia
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
53.8
Recent 5 strength
41.4
Rest days
6.1
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
10
Santos +18.5 performance-index edge
Remo
Fluminense
Flamengo
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
46.5 / 25.9 / 27.5
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 8.1 pp
Market quality High · 0.4 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
40%
1.80
Average goals
0.80
1.40
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Santos
Season
Bahia
#8
Position
#7
45
Points
49
31
Played
31
12W 9D 10L
Record
13W 10D 8L
+2
Goal difference
+5
55
League strength signal
60

@ Fluminense
1–2
Away

@ Atletico-MG
2–1
Away

vs Flamengo
2–2
Home

@ Sao Paulo
1–2
Away

@ Remo
1–2
Away

@ Atletico-MG
4–2
Away

vs Cruzeiro
2–1
Home

vs Atletico-MG
2–0
Home

@ Internacional
2–3
Away

vs Palmeiras
0–0
Home

@ Corinthians
0–1
Away

@ Palmeiras
3–0
Away

vs Mirassol
1–1
Home

@ Macara
0–0
Away

@ Vasco DA Gama
0–3
Away

vs Macara
2–1
Home

vs Atletico Paranaense
0–2
Home

@ Remo
0–1
Away

vs Remo
0–0
Home

vs UCV
4–2
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Santos
1.61
xG
Bahia
1.02
xG
Most likely scores
1.6
Santos avg
1.03
Bahia avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
7.4%
0
18.8%
1
25%
2
20.9%
3
15.2%
4
7.8%
5
4.8%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions