Published model
Palmeiras
74%
Draw
14%
RB Bragantino
12%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 23:30
23:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
99/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
97%
Core completeness
98%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Palmeiras
Last 5
RB Bragantino
5
Matches played
5
9
Goals scored
7
2
Goals conceded
7
+7
Goal difference
0
80%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
RB Bragantino win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Palmeiras
73%
Draw
15%
RB Bragantino
12%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Palmeiras
75%
Draw
13%
RB Bragantino
12%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Palmeiras
74%
Draw
14%
RB Bragantino
12%
Palmeiras
+1 pp
Draw
-1 pp
RB Bragantino
0 pp
Context evidence
76 → 78
45 → 45
Venue samples
4 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Palmeiras
Momentum score
68
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
RB Bragantino
Momentum score
80
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Palmeiras
74%
Draw
14%
RB Bragantino
12%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Palmeiras
66%
Draw
19%
RB Bragantino
15%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Palmeiras
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
68.9
Recent 5 strength
80.4
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
3
RB Bragantino
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
48.0
Recent 5 strength
45.4
Rest days
6.0
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
9
Palmeiras +24.1 performance-index edge
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
Gremio
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
60.3 / 23.1 / 16.6
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 8.7 pp
Market quality High · 0.7 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
20%
1.80
Average goals
1.40
0.40
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Palmeiras
Season
RB Bragantino
#2
Position
#10
66
Points
41
31
Played
31
19W 9D 3L
Record
11W 8D 12L
+32
Goal difference
+3
82
League strength signal
49

@ Atletico Paranaense
0–2
Away

@ Fluminense
1–2
Away

vs Corinthians
4–1
Home

vs Bahia
1–0
Home

@ Gremio
0–0
Away

@ LDU de Quito
3–2
Away

vs Sao Paulo
2–0
Home

vs LDU de Quito
1–0
Home

@ Botafogo
0–0
Away

@ Santos
0–0
Away

@ Mirassol
1–1
Away

vs Santos
3–0
Home

vs Vasco DA Gama
4–1
Home

@ Cerro Porteno
0–1
Away

@ Fluminense
3–2
Away

vs Cerro Porteno
1–1
Home

vs Internacional
0–0
Home

@ Fortaleza EC
3–2
Away

vs Fortaleza EC
3–0
Home

@ Vitoria
0–4
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Palmeiras
1.65
xG
RB Bragantino
0.81
xG
Most likely scores
1.65
Palmeiras avg
0.81
RB Bragantino avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
9%
0
20.8%
1
25.4%
2
21%
3
13%
4
6.7%
5
4.1%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions