Published model
Mirassol
28%
Draw
40%
Sao Paulo
32%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 21:30
21:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
99/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
97%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Mirassol
Last 5
Sao Paulo
5
Matches played
5
9
Goals scored
5
2
Goals conceded
5
+7
Goal difference
0
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Sao Paulo win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Mirassol
24%
Draw
40%
Sao Paulo
36%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Mirassol
32%
Draw
40%
Sao Paulo
28%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Mirassol
28%
Draw
40%
Sao Paulo
32%
Mirassol
+4 pp
Draw
0 pp
Sao Paulo
-4 pp
Context evidence
46 → 52
53 → 47
Venue samples
4 / 3
Opponent coverage
90%
Momentum
Mirassol
Momentum score
20
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Sao Paulo
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Mirassol
28%
Draw
40%
Sao Paulo
32%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Mirassol
34%
Draw
36%
Sao Paulo
30%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Mirassol
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
53.1
Recent 5 strength
68.2
Rest days
7.9
14-day fixtures
2
Sao Paulo
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
49.9
Recent 5 strength
54.6
Rest days
6.8
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
13
Mirassol +8.2 performance-index edge
Internacional
RB Bragantino
Vitoria
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
42.2 / 28.7 / 29.1
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 13.2 pp
Market quality High · 0.5 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
60%
1.80
Average goals
1.00
0.40
Average conceded
1.00
Competition
Current season
Mirassol
Season
Sao Paulo
#14
Position
#9
36
Points
42
31
Played
31
9W 9D 13L
Record
12W 6D 13L
-8
Goal difference
+1
36
League strength signal
52

vs Internacional
2–0
Home

@ Bahia
1–0
Away

@ RB Bragantino
1–1
Away

@ Uberlandia
0–4
Away

vs Botafogo
2–0
Home

vs Vitoria
2–2
Home

@ Coritiba
1–2
Away

@ Flamengo
2–0
Away

vs Palmeiras
1–1
Home

@ Santos
1–1
Away

@ LDU de Quito
0–0
Away

vs Flamengo
1–5
Home

vs LDU de Quito
1–1
Home

@ Cruzeiro
3–1
Away

@ Gremio
1–0
Away

vs Gremio
1–1
Home

vs Remo
2–1
Home

@ Vasco DA Gama
1–1
Away

vs Gremio
2–1
Home

@ Atletico Paranaense
1–0
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Mirassol
1.34
xG
Sao Paulo
0.67
xG
Most likely scores
1.34
Mirassol avg
0.67
Sao Paulo avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
13.5%
0
26.9%
1
26.8%
2
18.4%
3
9.4%
4
3.5%
5
1.5%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions