Published model
Internacional
23%
Draw
40%
Botafogo
37%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 21:30
21:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
96/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
90%
Effective history
94%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Internacional
Last 5
Botafogo
5
Matches played
5
5
Goals scored
6
6
Goals conceded
7
-1
Goal difference
-1
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Botafogo win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Internacional
23%
Draw
40%
Botafogo
37%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Internacional
23%
Draw
40%
Botafogo
37%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Internacional
23%
Draw
40%
Botafogo
37%
Internacional
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
Botafogo
0 pp
Context evidence
43 → 43
46 → 42
Venue samples
4 / 3
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Internacional
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Botafogo
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Internacional
23%
Draw
40%
Botafogo
37%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 56Internacional
31%
Draw
35%
Botafogo
34%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Internacional
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
41.8
Recent 5 strength
51.0
Rest days
7.9
14-day fixtures
2
Botafogo
18/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
46.3
Recent 5 strength
49.0
Rest days
6.9
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
12
Internacional -7.8 performance-index edge
Mirassol
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
47.2 / 26.6 / 26.2
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 25.2 pp
Market quality High · 1.1 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34% · large model-market disagreement — review
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
40%
1.00
Average goals
1.20
1.20
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Internacional
Season
Botafogo
#17
Position
#11
32
Points
39
31
Played
31
7W 11D 13L
Record
10W 9D 12L
-7
Goal difference
-4
28
League strength signal
45

@ Mirassol
2–0
Away

@ Gremio
1–1
Away

vs Corinthians
2–1
Home

@ Sao Paulo
1–0
Away

@ Chapecoense-sc
1–2
Away

vs Santos
2–3
Home

@ Gremio
3–1
Away

@ Bahia
3–2
Away

vs Gremio
0–0
Home

vs Atletico-MG
0–0
Home

vs Remo
1–1
Home

@ Palmeiras
0–0
Away

@ Corinthians
2–1
Away

vs Corinthians
2–0
Home

vs Flamengo
1–1
Home

@ Atletico Paranaense
2–0
Away

vs Cruzeiro
1–2
Home

@ RB Bragantino
3–1
Away

@ Vitoria
2–0
Away

vs Vasco DA Gama
4–1
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Internacional
1.13
xG
Botafogo
1.1
xG
Most likely scores
1.14
Internacional avg
1.09
Botafogo avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
10.7%
0
23.9%
1
26.8%
2
19.9%
3
11.1%
4
5.2%
5
2.5%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions