Published model
Flamengo
63%
Draw
15%
Atletico-MG
22%
Help improve Navurex
Optional first-party analytics help measure match usage, sign-up funnels and product performance. No advertising pixels or profiling. See the Cookie Policy.
Tue, 27 Oct 2026 · 00:00
00:00
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
99/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
97%
Core completeness
96%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Flamengo
Last 5
Atletico-MG
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
9
3
Goals conceded
3
+5
Goal difference
+6
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Atletico-MG win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Flamengo
61%
Draw
15%
Atletico-MG
24%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Flamengo
65%
Draw
15%
Atletico-MG
20%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Flamengo
63%
Draw
15%
Atletico-MG
22%
Flamengo
+2 pp
Draw
0 pp
Atletico-MG
-2 pp
Context evidence
78 → 77
61 → 55
Venue samples
5 / 3
Opponent coverage
80%
Momentum
Flamengo
Momentum score
56
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Atletico-MG
Momentum score
68
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Flamengo
63%
Draw
15%
Atletico-MG
22%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Flamengo
62%
Draw
18%
Atletico-MG
20%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Flamengo
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
73.6
Recent 5 strength
72.8
Rest days
8.1
14-day fixtures
2
Atletico-MG
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
65.8
Recent 5 strength
77.4
Rest days
9.1
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
9
Flamengo +4.8 performance-index edge
Santos
RB Bragantino
Cruzeiro
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
70.3 / 18.6 / 11.1
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 13.9 pp
Market quality High · 0.6 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
80%
1.60
Average goals
1.80
0.60
Average conceded
0.60
Competition
Current season
Flamengo
Season
Atletico-MG
#1
Position
#6
67
Points
50
31
Played
31
20W 7D 4L
Record
14W 8D 9L
+36
Goal difference
+7
85
League strength signal
63

@ Bahia
0–3
Away

@ Estudiantes L.P.
0–0
Away

vs Fluminense
1–0
Home

@ Santos
2–2
Away

vs RB Bragantino
2–1
Home

vs Independiente del Valle
1–1
Home

vs Corinthians
2–1
Home

@ Independiente del Valle
0–2
Away

@ Remo
0–1
Away

vs Mirassol
2–0
Home

vs Botafogo
3–0
Home

@ Cruzeiro
2–1
Away

vs Cruzeiro
2–1
Home

@ Mirassol
1–5
Away

@ Cruzeiro
1–1
Away

vs Vitoria
2–0
Home

@ Internacional
1–1
Away

vs Sao Paulo
1–1
Home

@ Chapecoense-sc
0–4
Away

vs Olimpia
4–2
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Flamengo
1.29
xG
Atletico-MG
1.11
xG
Most likely scores
1.28
Flamengo avg
1.1
Atletico-MG avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
9%
0
21.8%
1
26.2%
2
21.4%
3
12.5%
4
5.8%
5
3.3%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions