Published model
Coritiba
20%
Draw
40%
Gremio
40%
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Mon, 26 Oct 2026 · 23:30
23:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
100/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
96%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Coritiba
Last 5
Gremio
5
Matches played
5
4
Goals scored
6
14
Goals conceded
9
-10
Goal difference
-3
0%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Gremio win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Coritiba
17%
Draw
40%
Gremio
43%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Coritiba
23%
Draw
40%
Gremio
37%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Coritiba
20%
Draw
40%
Gremio
40%
Coritiba
+3 pp
Draw
0 pp
Gremio
-3 pp
Context evidence
34 → 39
33 → 33
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Coritiba
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Gremio
Momentum score
53
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Coritiba
20%
Draw
40%
Gremio
40%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 56Coritiba
28%
Draw
36%
Gremio
36%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Coritiba
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
40.4
Recent 5 strength
27.2
Rest days
9.0
14-day fixtures
1
Gremio
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
42.6
Recent 5 strength
35.8
Rest days
8.1
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
13
Coritiba -3.8 performance-index edge
Botafogo
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
43.6 / 27.7 / 28.7
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 23.6 pp
Market quality High · 0.4 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
0%
0.80
Average goals
1.20
2.80
Average conceded
1.80
Competition
Current season
Coritiba
Season
Gremio
#12
Position
#18
39
Points
31
31
Played
31
10W 9D 12L
Record
7W 10D 14L
-11
Goal difference
-10
42
League strength signal
25

@ Atletico-MG
1–0
Away

vs Botafogo
1–1
Home

@ Fluminense
4–0
Away

@ Vasco DA Gama
5–0
Away

vs Atletico Paranaense
3–3
Home

vs Mirassol
1–2
Home

@ Remo
2–3
Away

vs Corinthians
2–1
Home

@ Sao Paulo
1–1
Away

vs Chapecoense-sc
2–1
Home

vs Cruzeiro
0–1
Home

@ RB Bragantino
0–0
Away

vs Palmeiras
1–3
Home

@ Flamengo
3–0
Away

vs Bahia
3–2
Home

@ Santos
0–3
Away

vs Santos
0–2
Home

vs Internacional
2–2
Home

@ Vitoria
4–1
Away

@ Gremio
1–0
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Coritiba
1.18
xG
Gremio
1.77
xG
Most likely scores
1.18
Coritiba avg
1.76
Gremio avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
5.5%
0
15.3%
1
22.8%
2
22.7%
3
16.6%
4
9.2%
5
8%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions