Published model
Chapecoense-sc
10%
Draw
38%
Fluminense
52%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 00:30
00:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
97/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
95%
Effective history
95%
Core completeness
97%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Chapecoense-sc
Last 5
Fluminense
5
Matches played
5
3
Goals scored
9
11
Goals conceded
6
-8
Goal difference
+3
0%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Fluminense win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Chapecoense-sc
10%
Draw
37%
Fluminense
53%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Chapecoense-sc
10%
Draw
40%
Fluminense
50%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Chapecoense-sc
10%
Draw
38%
Fluminense
52%
Chapecoense-sc
0 pp
Draw
+1 pp
Fluminense
-1 pp
Context evidence
21 → 24
54 → 52
Venue samples
4 / 5
Opponent coverage
90%
Momentum
Chapecoense-sc
Momentum score
32
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Fluminense
Momentum score
0
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Chapecoense-sc
10%
Draw
38%
Fluminense
52%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 75Chapecoense-sc
16%
Draw
34%
Fluminense
50%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Chapecoense-sc
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
36.9
Recent 5 strength
28.2
Rest days
7.1
14-day fixtures
2
Fluminense
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
50.9
Recent 5 strength
46.4
Rest days
6.1
14-day fixtures
3
Common opponents
9
Chapecoense-sc -12.6 performance-index edge
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
22.7 / 25.9 / 51.4
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 13.1 pp
Market quality High · 0.9 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
40%
0.60
Average goals
1.80
2.20
Average conceded
1.20
Competition
Current season
Chapecoense-sc
Season
Fluminense
#20
Position
#5
18
Points
51
30
Played
31
3W 9D 18L
Record
14W 9D 8L
-32
Goal difference
+10
12
League strength signal
66

@ Botafogo
1–0
Away

vs Atletico Paranaense
1–4
Home

@ Vitoria
4–0
Away

@ Atletico Nacional
1–1
Away

@ Atletico-MG
1–1
Away

vs Internacional
1–2
Home

@ Corinthians
1–2
Away

@ Gremio
3–1
Away

vs Sao Paulo
1–0
Home

vs Bahia
3–3
Home

@ Coritiba
2–1
Away

@ Cruzeiro
2–0
Away

vs Cruzeiro
0–0
Home

@ Santos
2–2
Away

vs Flamengo
0–4
Home

@ Bahia
2–0
Away

@ Gremio
1–2
Away

vs Avai
3–0
Home

@ Avai
3–0
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Chapecoense-sc
0.76
xG
Fluminense
2.19
xG
Most likely scores
0.77
Chapecoense-sc avg
2.18
Fluminense avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
5.1%
0
15.3%
1
23.1%
2
22%
3
16.9%
4
9.9%
5
7.7%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Coritiba
4–0
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