Published model
Clodiense
39%
Draw
30%
Bassano Virtus
31%
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Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
81/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
95%
Effective history
96%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Clodiense
Last 5
Bassano Virtus
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
7
7
Goals conceded
3
-1
Goal difference
+4
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Bassano Virtus win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Clodiense
36%
Draw
31%
Bassano Virtus
33%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Clodiense
43%
Draw
28%
Bassano Virtus
29%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Clodiense
39%
Draw
30%
Bassano Virtus
31%
Clodiense
+3 pp
Draw
-1 pp
Bassano Virtus
-2 pp
Context evidence
61 → 64
60 → 57
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Clodiense
Momentum score
100
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Bassano Virtus
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Clodiense
39%
Draw
30%
Bassano Virtus
31%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 65Clodiense
39%
Draw
30%
Bassano Virtus
31%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Clodiense
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
62.6
Recent 5 strength
53.6
Rest days
14.8
14-day fixtures
0
Bassano Virtus
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
57.6
Recent 5 strength
66.2
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
14
Clodiense +11.6 performance-index edge
Calvi Noale
Brian Lignano
Schio
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
1.20
Average goals
1.40
1.40
Average conceded
0.60
Competition
Current season
Clodiense
Season
Bassano Virtus
#3
Position
#7
16
Points
12
8
Played
8
5W 1D 2L
Record
3W 3D 2L
+3
Goal difference
+3
75
League strength signal
58

vs Calvi Noale
3–2
Home

@ Altavilla
0–1
Away

vs Campodarsego
2–1
Home

vs Sandona
0–1
Home

@ Luparense
3–0
Away

@ Brian Lignano
3–5
Away

vs Este
1–0
Home

@ Schio
1–1
Away

vs Virtus Bolzano
2–0
Home

@ Legnago Salus
2–2
Away

vs Este
1–0
Home

@ Portogruaro
0–2
Away

vs Adriese
2–1
Home

@ Este
1–1
Away

vs Vigasio
0–1
Home

@ Conegliano
3–2
Away

vs Mestre
0–0
Home

@ FC Obermais
1–2
Away

vs San Luigi
4–1
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Clodiense
0.85
xG
Bassano Virtus
1.25
xG
Most likely scores
0.86
Clodiense avg
1.27
Bassano Virtus avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
12.1%
0
25.3%
1
26.2%
2
19.4%
3
10.7%
4
4.3%
5
2.1%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions