Published model
Giugliano
15%
Draw
40%
Foggia
45%
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Mon, 19 Oct 2026 · 20:30
20:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
100/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Giugliano
Last 5
Foggia
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
7
9
Goals conceded
6
-3
Goal difference
+1
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Foggia win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Giugliano
15%
Draw
40%
Foggia
45%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Giugliano
16%
Draw
40%
Foggia
44%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Giugliano
15%
Draw
40%
Foggia
45%
Giugliano
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
Foggia
0 pp
Context evidence
32 → 33
45 → 47
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Giugliano
Momentum score
41
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Foggia
Momentum score
77
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Giugliano
15%
Draw
40%
Foggia
45%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 65Giugliano
21%
Draw
37%
Foggia
42%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Giugliano
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
39.8
Recent 5 strength
42.4
Rest days
6.2
14-day fixtures
2
Foggia
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
39.9
Recent 5 strength
51.0
Rest days
8.3
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
11
Giugliano -1.3 performance-index edge
Inter U23
Salernitana
Cosenza
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
30.5 / 30.0 / 39.5
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 13.5 pp
Market quality High · 0.7 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
40%
1.20
Average goals
1.40
1.80
Average conceded
1.20
Competition
Current season
Giugliano
Season
Foggia
#18
Position
#13
7
Points
11
9
Played
9
2W 1D 6L
Record
3W 2D 4L
-10
Goal difference
-1
19
League strength signal
40

vs Inter U23
0–4
Home

@ Bari
2–0
Away

vs Barletta
1–0
Home

@ Salernitana
1–0
Away

vs Cosenza
5–2
Home

@ Audace Cerignola
4–0
Away

vs Sorrento
0–2
Home

@ Casarano
4–3
Away

vs Scafatese
3–3
Home

vs Sorrento
0–0
Home

@ Catanzaro
3–0
Away

@ Casertana
1–1
Away

vs Benevento
1–1
Home

@ Team Altamura
1–1
Away

vs Crotone
1–0
Home

@ Casarano
2–0
Away

@ Audace Cerignola
1–0
Away

vs Atalanta II
3–1
Home

@ Siracusa
2–1
Away

vs SS Monopoli
2–0
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Giugliano
1.14
xG
Foggia
1.65
xG
Most likely scores
1.13
Giugliano avg
1.66
Foggia avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.2%
0
16.9%
1
24%
2
22.4%
3
15.4%
4
8.6%
5
6.4%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Inter U23
3–2
Away