Published model
Juventus U23
14%
Draw
40%
Renate
46%
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Mon, 19 Oct 2026 · 20:30
20:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
100/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Juventus U23
Last 5
Renate
5
Matches played
5
4
Goals scored
4
9
Goals conceded
6
-5
Goal difference
-2
0%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Renate win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Juventus U23
12%
Draw
40%
Renate
48%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Juventus U23
17%
Draw
40%
Renate
43%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Juventus U23
14%
Draw
40%
Renate
46%
Juventus U23
+2 pp
Draw
0 pp
Renate
-2 pp
Context evidence
26 → 32
26 → 28
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Juventus U23
Momentum score
62
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Renate
Momentum score
53
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Juventus U23
14%
Draw
40%
Renate
46%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Juventus U23
26%
Draw
36%
Renate
38%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Juventus U23
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
42.2
Recent 5 strength
29.2
Rest days
6.2
14-day fixtures
2
Renate
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
41.2
Recent 5 strength
36.8
Rest days
8.3
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
5
Juventus U23 -2.8 performance-index edge
Lumezzane
Arzignano Valchiampo
Cittadella
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
40.9 / 28.1 / 31.0
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 21.9 pp
Market quality High · 0.6 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
0%
0.80
Average goals
0.80
1.80
Average conceded
1.20
Competition
Current season
Juventus U23
Season
Renate
#17
Position
#20
7
Points
4
9
Played
9
1W 4D 4L
Record
0W 4D 5L
-7
Goal difference
-6
22
League strength signal
11

vs Lumezzane
0–0
Home

@ Arzignano Valchiampo
2–1
Away

@ Desenzano Calvina
0–0
Away

vs Albinoleffe
3–5
Home

@ Cittadella
2–0
Away

@ Ospitaletto
3–0
Away

vs Pergolettese
0–0
Home

@ Athletic Carpi
3–3
Away

vs Novara
1–0
Home

vs Forli
1–1
Home

@ Pisa
1–1
Away

vs Pianese
0–2
Home

vs Vis Pesaro
2–2
Home

vs Bra
2–2
Home

@ Pianese
0–0
Away

vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937
1–0
Home

vs Ternana
2–1
Home

@ Perugia
2–2
Away

vs Gubbio
2–2
Home

@ Forli
2–2
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Juventus U23
0.92
xG
Renate
1.13
xG
Most likely scores
0.92
Juventus U23 avg
1.13
Renate avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
13.4%
0
25.7%
1
26.9%
2
19%
3
9.5%
4
3.8%
5
1.8%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Arzignano Valchiampo
2–1
Away