Published model
Giana Erminio
10%
Draw
19%
Union Brescia
71%
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Mon, 19 Oct 2026 · 20:30
20:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
100/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Giana Erminio
Last 5
Union Brescia
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
11
6
Goals conceded
5
0
Goal difference
+6
0%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Union Brescia win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Giana Erminio
10%
Draw
20%
Union Brescia
70%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Giana Erminio
10%
Draw
18%
Union Brescia
72%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Giana Erminio
10%
Draw
19%
Union Brescia
71%
Giana Erminio
0 pp
Draw
-1 pp
Union Brescia
+1 pp
Context evidence
33 → 34
70 → 72
Venue samples
4 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Giana Erminio
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Union Brescia
Momentum score
44
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Giana Erminio
10%
Draw
19%
Union Brescia
71%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Giana Erminio
13%
Draw
22%
Union Brescia
65%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Giana Erminio
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
41.3
Recent 5 strength
51.0
Rest days
8.3
14-day fixtures
1
Union Brescia
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
66.1
Recent 5 strength
66.2
Rest days
10.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
7
Giana Erminio -16.9 performance-index edge
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Treviso
PRO Vercelli
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
18.4 / 25.5 / 56.1
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 12.9 pp
Market quality High · 0.9 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
40%
1.20
Average goals
2.20
1.20
Average conceded
1.00
Competition
Current season
Giana Erminio
Season
Union Brescia
#19
Position
#2
5
Points
19
9
Played
9
0W 5D 4L
Record
5W 4D 0L
-4
Goal difference
+10
16
League strength signal
82

@ Renate
2–2
Away

@ Treviso
0–0
Away

vs PRO Vercelli
1–1
Home

@ Folgore Caratese
1–1
Away

vs Trento
2–2
Home

@ Lecco
1–0
Away

vs Dolomiti Bellunesi
1–2
Home

@ Union Brescia
5–2
Away

@ Lumezzane
1–0
Away

vs Albinoleffe
1–2
Home

vs Folgore Caratese
1–1
Home

@ Cremonese
4–0
Away

@ Lecco
2–1
Away

@ Trento
1–2
Away

@ Cittadella
0–2
Away

vs Inter U23
2–0
Home

@ Triestina
2–0
Away

vs Dolomiti Bellunesi
1–1
Home

@ Ospitaletto
3–2
Away

vs Pergolettese
2–0
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Giana Erminio
0.91
xG
Union Brescia
1.85
xG
Most likely scores
0.9
Giana Erminio avg
1.84
Union Brescia avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.5%
0
17.4%
1
24.4%
2
22.1%
3
15.5%
4
8.2%
5
5.9%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Alcione
0–4
Away