Published model
Dolomiti Bellunesi
12%
Draw
27%
Trento
61%
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Mon, 19 Oct 2026 · 20:30
20:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
100/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Last 5
Trento
5
Matches played
5
3
Goals scored
9
7
Goals conceded
4
-4
Goal difference
+5
0%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Trento win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Dolomiti Bellunesi
12%
Draw
25%
Trento
63%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Dolomiti Bellunesi
13%
Draw
29%
Trento
58%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Dolomiti Bellunesi
12%
Draw
27%
Trento
61%
Dolomiti Bellunesi
0 pp
Draw
+2 pp
Trento
-2 pp
Context evidence
34 → 35
64 → 61
Venue samples
4 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Trento
Momentum score
44
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Dolomiti Bellunesi
12%
Draw
27%
Trento
61%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 75Dolomiti Bellunesi
17%
Draw
30%
Trento
53%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Dolomiti Bellunesi
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
42.9
Recent 5 strength
30.2
Rest days
9.1
14-day fixtures
1
Trento
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
57.0
Recent 5 strength
66.2
Rest days
8.1
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
8
Dolomiti Bellunesi +7.2 performance-index edge
Giana Erminio
Desenzano Calvina
Union Brescia
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
19.4 / 27.4 / 53.3
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 3.6 pp
Market quality High · 0.4 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
40%
0.60
Average goals
1.80
1.40
Average conceded
0.80
Competition
Current season
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Season
Trento
#14
Position
#5
10
Points
17
9
Played
9
2W 4D 3L
Record
4W 5D 0L
-2
Goal difference
+7
36
League strength signal
71

@ Desenzano Calvina
2–0
Away

vs Novara
1–2
Home

@ Union Brescia
1–1
Away

vs Lumezzane
1–2
Home

@ Renate
0–0
Away

vs Albinoleffe
0–0
Home

@ Giana Erminio
1–2
Away

@ Arzignano Valchiampo
2–2
Away

vs Alcione
0–0
Home

@ Folgore Caratese
1–2
Away

vs Treviso
1–0
Home

vs Virtus Verona
1–1
Home

@ Hellas Verona
1–0
Away

@ Venezia
4–2
Away

vs Trento
0–0
Home

@ Union Brescia
2–0
Away

vs Pro Patria
2–4
Home

@ Giana Erminio
1–1
Away

vs Arzignano Valchiampo
1–2
Home

@ Inter U23
1–2
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Dolomiti Bellunesi
0.55
xG
Trento
1.5
xG
Most likely scores
0.55
Dolomiti Bellunesi avg
1.5
Trento avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
12.3%
0
27.2%
1
26.8%
2
18.5%
3
9.2%
4
4%
5
1.8%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs PRO Vercelli
4–0
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