Published model
Tottenham
15%
Draw
40%
Coventry
45%
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Mon, 19 Oct 2026 · 21:00
21:00
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
98/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Tottenham
Last 5
Coventry
5
Matches played
5
4
Goals scored
6
7
Goals conceded
10
-3
Goal difference
-4
0%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Coventry win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Tottenham
15%
Draw
40%
Coventry
45%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Tottenham
16%
Draw
40%
Coventry
44%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Tottenham
15%
Draw
40%
Coventry
45%
Tottenham
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
Coventry
0 pp
Context evidence
31 → 32
34 → 38
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Tottenham
Momentum score
38
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Coventry
Momentum score
86
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
3/5
Published model
Tottenham
15%
Draw
40%
Coventry
45%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 53Tottenham
28%
Draw
36%
Coventry
36%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Tottenham
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
51.8
Recent 5 strength
37.6
Rest days
9.1
14-day fixtures
1
Coventry
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
56.5
Recent 5 strength
43.6
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
3
Tottenham -29.4 performance-index edge
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Newcastle
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
63.5 / 21.0 / 15.5
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 45.5 pp
Market quality High · 0.5 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34% · large model-market disagreement — review
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
40%
0.80
Average goals
1.20
1.40
Average conceded
2.00
Competition
Current season
Tottenham
Season
Coventry
#20
Position
#16
3
Points
6
6
Played
6
0W 3D 3L
Record
2W 0D 4L
-6
Goal difference
-6
15
League strength signal
27

@ Manchester United
1–1
Away

vs Aston Villa
2–3
Home

@ Liverpool
3–1
Away

vs Everton
0–0
Home

@ Nottingham Forest
0–0
Away

vs Newcastle
0–2
Home

vs Charlton
5–1
Home

@ Brentford
3–0
Away

vs 1899 Hoffenheim
2–2
Home

vs 1899 Hoffenheim
3–0
Home

vs Getafe
1–1
Home

@ Chelsea
1–2
Away

vs Sydney
1–1
Home

@ Auckland
0–2
Away

vs Milton Keynes Dons
1–0
Home

vs Everton
1–0
Home

@ Chelsea
2–1
Away

vs Leeds
1–1
Home

@ Aston Villa
1–2
Away

@ Wolves
0–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Tottenham
1.22
xG
Coventry
1.19
xG
Most likely scores
1.22
Tottenham avg
1.18
Coventry avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
8.9%
0
21.7%
1
25.9%
2
21.4%
3
12.8%
4
5.8%
5
3.4%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Brighton
0–5
Home