Published model
Le Havre
10%
Draw
18%
Paris Saint Germain
72%
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Fri, 30 Oct 2026 · 19:00
19:00
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
92/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
95%
Effective history
97%
Core completeness
96%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
10/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Le Havre
Last 5
Paris Saint Germain
5
Matches played
5
9
Goals scored
13
8
Goals conceded
5
+1
Goal difference
+8
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Paris Saint Germain win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Le Havre
10%
Draw
19%
Paris Saint Germain
71%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Le Havre
10%
Draw
17%
Paris Saint Germain
73%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Le Havre
10%
Draw
18%
Paris Saint Germain
72%
Le Havre
0 pp
Draw
-1 pp
Paris Saint Germain
+1 pp
Context evidence
24 → 30
72 → 74
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
80%
Momentum
Le Havre
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Paris Saint Germain
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Le Havre
10%
Draw
18%
Paris Saint Germain
72%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Le Havre
11%
Draw
18%
Paris Saint Germain
71%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Le Havre
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
41.2
Recent 5 strength
37.8
Rest days
12.1
14-day fixtures
1
Paris Saint Germain
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
63.5
Recent 5 strength
88.0
Rest days
13.1
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
6
Le Havre -21.4 performance-index edge
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
Monaco
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
9.7 / 14.1 / 76.2
4 bookmakers · Market disagreement 7.2 pp
Market quality Medium · 0.8 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 25%
William Hill · Marathonbet · Pinnacle · 1xBet
Win rate
100%
1.80
Average goals
2.60
1.60
Average conceded
1.00
Competition
Current season
Le Havre
Season
Paris Saint Germain
#18
Position
#2
2
Points
14
7
Played
7
0W 2D 5L
Record
4W 2D 1L
-6
Goal difference
+5
11
League strength signal
80

vs Auxerre
1–3
Home

@ Lille
1–0
Away

vs Boulogne
6–1
Home

@ Toulouse
3–2
Away

vs Angers
0–0
Home

vs Stade Brestois 29
1–2
Home

@ Lyon
1–1
Away

vs Monaco
0–1
Home

@ Le Mans
0–1
Away

@ Oviedo
3–2
Away

@ Ipswich
1–0
Away

vs Laval
1–1
Home

vs RED Star FC 93
2–1
Home

vs Amiens
1–2
Home

@ Lorient
0–2
Away

vs Marseille
0–1
Home

@ Lille
1–1
Away

vs Metz
4–4
Home

@ Angers
1–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Le Havre
1.21
xG
Paris Saint Germain
2.4
xG
Most likely scores
1.21
Le Havre avg
2.36
Paris Saint Germain avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
2.6%
0
9.9%
1
19.1%
2
21%
3
18.2%
4
13.8%
5
15.3%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Marseille
1–2
Away