Published model
Rodez
12%
Draw
32%
Montpellier
56%
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Mon, 19 Oct 2026 · 20:45
20:45
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
97/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
95%
Effective history
97%
Core completeness
97%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Rodez
Last 5
Montpellier
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
5
11
Goals conceded
4
-5
Goal difference
+1
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Montpellier win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Rodez
11%
Draw
31%
Montpellier
58%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Rodez
14%
Draw
32%
Montpellier
54%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Rodez
12%
Draw
32%
Montpellier
56%
Rodez
+1 pp
Draw
+1 pp
Montpellier
-2 pp
Context evidence
28 → 34
58 → 59
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
90%
Momentum
Rodez
Momentum score
68
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Montpellier
Momentum score
83
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Rodez
12%
Draw
32%
Montpellier
56%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 75Rodez
22%
Draw
30%
Montpellier
48%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Rodez
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
50.7
Recent 5 strength
28.2
Rest days
9.0
14-day fixtures
1
Montpellier
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
62.9
Recent 5 strength
56.6
Rest days
10.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
7
Rodez -13.7 performance-index edge
Saint Etienne
Grenoble
Nancy
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
32.1 / 28.5 / 39.4
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 16.1 pp
Market quality High · 1.2 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
40%
1.20
Average goals
1.00
2.20
Average conceded
0.80
Competition
Current season
Rodez
Season
Montpellier
#17
Position
#5
7
Points
15
8
Played
8
2W 1D 5L
Record
4W 3D 1L
-4
Goal difference
+3
20
League strength signal
68

@ Saint Etienne
2–0
Away

vs Inter Club d'Escaldes
2–0
Home

vs Nancy
3–4
Home

vs Grenoble
0–1
Home

@ Metz
4–1
Away

vs PAU
2–2
Home

@ Nantes
2–5
Away

@ Annecy
2–0
Away

vs Laval
3–1
Home

@ Montpellier
4–2
Away

@ Toulouse
1–1
Away

vs Nimes
2–1
Home

vs Cannes
4–1
Home

vs Bastia
5–3
Home

@ Saint Etienne
0–0
Away

@ RED Star FC 93
2–3
Away

@ Annecy
1–2
Away

vs Saint Etienne
2–1
Home

@ Laval
0–0
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Rodez
0.95
xG
Montpellier
1.56
xG
Most likely scores
0.96
Rodez avg
1.57
Montpellier avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
7.5%
0
20.3%
1
26%
2
21.8%
3
13.5%
4
6.7%
5
4.3%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Saint Etienne
3–1
Away